As you will have already noted from the letterhead of this Open Letter, I do not represent any Armenian organisation, institute or political group. On the contrary, I write to you in my private capacity as an Armenian who also happens to be an EU citizen and who has visited Armenia - the symbolic heartland for all Armenians - only twice in his life.

In other words, I do not give myself the right to lecture you, advise and admonish you or even berate and heckle you over the decisions you are adopting in relation to the two protocols mooted for signature in Zürich on 10th or 13th October between the Armenian and Turkish foreign ministers in the presence of the Swiss foreign minister. After all, much as my ethnicity and genes are irrevocably Armenian, I am neither a citizen of the Republic of Armenia nor one if its tax-paying residents.

So why do I grant myself the right to address this letter to you, with copy to HE Ambassador Dr Vahé Gabrielyan in London, as well as publish it EU-wide, when I turned down the opportunity to travel to Paris to meet with you in a public forum?

I respectfully submit that my reasons emanate from a deep-seated concern as to whether this agreement is indeed helpful let alone beneficial for the republic of Armenia - and by osmosis for Armenians in the Diaspora. But let me start off, as did Vartan Oskanian, former Armenian Foreign Minister and now Director of Civilitas Foundation in Yerevan, by stating that I too support unequivocally the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey, the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and the resolution of all outstanding disputes between the two countries. I also support your constitutional right, even your presidential prerogative, to proceed with those protocols. After all, I am not willing to act out the role of an Armenian who exhibits visceral emotions, but rather one who struggles to uphold visceral convictions.

So allow me to posit in this Open Letter a few Open Questions to Your Excellency as you ponder over the status of your future relations with Turkey within the wider Caucasus region. And here, I do not wish of necessity to go over the issues that have been dealt with in a veritable plethora of analyses and articles pointing out to the three fundamental drawbacks of those two protocols, namely, the judicial overlap between territorial integrity and actual borders as distinct de jure and de facto issues, a relinquishment from recognising the Armenian genocide and the isolation of Artsakh (Nagorny-Karabagh) from the Armenian political mainland. More learned minds have nitpicked those lacunae in great depth and have argued that they are inimical with Armenian overall interests as they impact upon a whole range of issues from historicity to oil or gas pipelines.

The two painfully practical queries I import into this debate are simply the following:
(1) Those protocols might well be signed in Switzerland, but I understand they need to be ratified by both the Turkish and Armenian parliaments within six weeks. In my opinion, such ratification is not a foregone conclusion, and it might well be that Turkey could use its considerable diplomatic skills to prevaricate upon such ratification as a source of pressure upon Armenia to resolve the Karabagh issue in Azerbaijan’s interest. This political truism becomes even more self-evident when one wonders how Turkey could reconcile its willingness to forge ahead with this agreement and open its border with Armenia with its promise to Azerbaijan that it will not do so until the Karabagh issue has been resolved (in its favour). In one flourish, Turkey will have pleased the Americans, satisfied some EU member-states about its seriousness to join our European club, spread its Turkic influence in the whole region (Russia notwithstanding) and left Armenia even more vulnerable than it truly is now.
(2) On the historical sub-commission dealing with genocide, and assuming I delete all my personal memory banks let alone forfeit my amazement that Armenia seems to have regressed from all achievements to date for international recognition, I would enquire how Turkey could even allow the mechanism for such discussion to proceed when its own Penal Code (under Art 301 et al) renders it a criminal offence to mention the word “genocide” in public fora. Have previous Commissions, the likes of the ICTJ and TARC, not ended in abject failure because Turkey and its array of apologists did not accept the outcome of their recommendations? Is it any wonder that international genocide scholars are now flummoxed that a sub-commission will knowingly unravel all the recognitions of the past decades and allow Turkey to claim to all and sundry that Armenia itself is still perusing the ‘scientific’ data on whether genocide was committed under cover of WWI? Do you not think there has been ample forensic examination of archives by independent genocide scholars such as the IAGS that we are now re-booting ab initio the whole chapter of recognition with this retreat? I personally agree that it is high time we Armenians, as well as Turkey, learn to address the issue of genocide with soul-searching probity, but surely not at any cost and in this way.
Mr President, you are certainly no traitor or quisling as some people have defamed you on the basis of those controversial protocols. After all, if I were to exercise good faith, I would even affirm that you are endeavouring to protect the global interests of a landlocked Armenia at a time of changing realities in the Caucasus and of ominous economic difficulties facing Armenia. But in so doing, are you not repeating the Palestinian syndrome of “cosying up” to Israel - their erstwhile foe - in the hope that they might derive some responsive benefit from this rapprochement whilst all they get are more political rejections or dangerous deceptions? Should you not have been much more transparent and forthcoming with the Diasporan Armenians and listened to them before the announcement was made on 31st August (rather than now during your tour when the gap is so wide and the mistrust so palpable)? And going back to Israel, a country many Armenians are fond to use as comparison, does Israel not listen to its Jewish lobbies worldwide and even uses them to enhance its own national interests?
As an Armenian whose grandparents were survivors of the genocide, but who wishes to let bygones be bygones on the basis of mutual confidence-building and equitable grounds, I regret you have not won me over with your arguments or documents. Whilst I agree wholeheartedly with [Sir] Winston Churchill that it is much wiser to jaw-jaw than to war-war, is it not even wiser for a small and beleaguered Armenian nation to ensure that its jaw is not broken as a consequence of this agreement? The protocols have created fissures within Armenia itself, and certainly with the Diaspora, and true statesmanship will never have allowed this issue to become one of us versus them. Perhaps your mandarins at the Foreign or Diaspora Ministries accompanying you could find a diplomatic démarche to re-visit the discussions with Turkey - perhaps assisted by Diasporan Armenian leaders and in the presence of the USA, Russia and the EU - to correct the flaws in the agreement before a signature date becomes incumbent and the return football match sets the ball rolling again. If this were an option, albeit quite remote, I will be the first person queuing up to defend your agreement for a fresh page with Turkey and its peoples.
Mr President, like countless other Armenians with open minds, big hearts and democratic cultures, might I respectfully remind you that you will not necessarily ensure the security of Armenia with those protocols. Rather, instead of a political catharsis that would transform the region and lift up the interests of Armenia within it, you might in fact end up in complicity with a grave error. That is something neither wisdom nor time would succeed in hindsight to expunge from all our lives - irrespective of whether we live in Yerevan, in Paris, Los Angeles and Beirut, or in Stepanakert.
Much as I appreciate the heavy burden you carry on your shoulders - almost unfathomable for an ordinary person like me who does not hold political office in Armenia - I also pray that the wisdom of 3000 years of Armenian collective history let alone numerous experiences in the face of adversity will guide you in your tough choices between today and 10th October.
Very Truly Yours,
Harry Hagopian
International Lawyer & EU Political Consultant
London W8